SrasV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 004360

An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics

Identifieur interne : 004360 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004359; suivant : 004361

An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics

Auteurs : Alex James [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Jonathan W. Pitchford [Royaume-Uni] ; Michael J. Plank [Nouvelle-Zélande]

Source :

Proceedings of The Royal Society B [ 0962-8452 ] ; 2006.

RBID : ISTEX:4E778D4E02A6B22584E923E795DE2EC0E91ACEF9

Abstract

Many recent disease outbreaks (e.g. SARS, foot-and-mouth disease) exhibit superspreading, where relatively few individuals cause a large number of secondary cases. Epidemic models have previously treated this as a demographic phenomenon where each individual has an infectivity allocated at random from some distribution. Here, it is shown that superspreading can also be regarded as being caused by environmental variability, where superspreading events (SSEs) occur as a stochastic consequence of the complex network of interactions made by individuals. This interpretation based on SSEs is compared with data and its efficacy in evaluating epidemic control strategies is discussed.

Url:

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.0219

Affiliations:

Nouvelle-Zélande, Royaume-Uni

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Many recent disease outbreaks (e.g. SARS, foot-and-mouth disease) exhibit superspreading, where relatively few individuals cause a large number of secondary cases. Epidemic models have previously treated this as a demographic phenomenon where each individual has an infectivity allocated at random from some distribution. Here, it is shown that superspreading can also be regarded as being caused by environmental variability, where superspreading events (SSEs) occur as a stochastic consequence of the complex network of interactions made by individuals. This interpretation based on SSEs is compared with data and its efficacy in evaluating epidemic control strategies is discussed.</div>
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An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics

An event-based model of superspreading in epidemics

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